Sunday, May 20, 2007

Chinese market, hot or not?

This weekend’s research paper is based on the use of statistics in analyzing research data for new product launches. The scenario involves a bank assessing new credit card offerings (what a fresh idea!).

Anyway, in doing some research on banking I stumbled across this snippet regarding banking in China.

When might the Chinese consumer help really drive the global economy? Analysts at Credit Suisse Group have conjured a rosy scenario in which China becomes the world's second-largest consumer nation (after the U.S.) by 2020, up from No. 5 today. UBS is less upbeat, estimating that the middle class includes only about 25 million people--just 2% of China's population--hardly big enough to have much impact globally. And even Credit Suisse acknowledges that personal incomes, while climbing, aren't keeping pace with rising GDP. "If you think the purpose of rapid economic growth is to increase consumption and the general welfare, then China isn't doing a very good job," says Nicholas R. Lardy, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.


From CAUTIOUS CONSUMERS; The Chinese are on a spending spree, right? Not really. In fact, they're so tightfisted, Beijing is worried By Dexter Roberts. Business Week. New York: Apr 30, 2007.